Free handbook · PDF

From Data to Decision

A model-selection handbook for applied economic research: from the test that selects the method to the paper that reports it.

8 parts60 method chaptersPython · Dynare

Download the handbook (PDF)

Why this handbook. Applied economists rarely lack methods; they lack a defensible way to choose among them. This handbook starts from the question, not the estimator: which test or diagnostic tells you which model to use, what to do when the evidence is mixed, and how to write the result up. Every chapter takes one real dataset through that path (tests, estimation, diagnostics, robustness, and the text of the paper) with the code and its output shown, so you can reproduce each step.

The decision paths, the choice of tests and the design of the inference are based on my own learning, knowledge and implementation. Interactive versions of the guides are on the main website. The handbook is free to read and share.

Work in progress. This handbook is still being revised. Please check numerical results and references against the original sources before citing. If you find a mistake, a typo or an unclear passage, please report it to tuhin.hnu@gmail.com. Corrections are welcome and will be credited in later versions.

Part I. Foundations

The decision framework and the research workflow.

Part II. Time-Series Methods

OLS, VAR, VECM, ARDL, NARDL, SVAR, local projections, threshold and smooth-transition models, structural breaks, 2SLS and GMM.

Part III. Panel-Data Methods

Pooled OLS, fixed and random effects, GMM, Driscoll–Kraay, mean group, PMG, CS-ARDL, panel local projections and panel thresholds.

Part IV. Causal-Inference Designs

Instrumental variables, difference-in-differences, staggered DiD, synthetic control, generalized synthetic control, interrupted time series, regression discontinuity.

Part V. Machine Learning

LASSO, ridge, elastic net, random forest, gradient boosting, double machine learning and causal forests.

Part VI. Bayesian Methods

Bayesian regression, BVAR, steady-state VAR, FAVAR, mixed-frequency, panel VAR, stochastic-volatility, TVP and threshold VARs.

Part VII. Markov-Switching Models

MS-AR, MS regression, MS-VAR and MS panel VAR.

Part VIII. DSGE with Dynare

RBC, New Keynesian, small open economy, optimal policy, identification, Bayesian estimation, medium-scale model, zero lower bound, higher-order solutions.